Precious Metals

200401 Silver & Gold Update

I’ve been intentionally avoiding updating this page because I am a Gold and Silver bull. Clearly for the last 8 years, that has been an unpopular space to own & didn’t want current panic/ emotion of my readers to get over-blown by action based on that bullish sentiment. In the short term, Gold, and especially Silver has been moving as if they were stock investments. I.E., mostly down! I don’t consider them that. I consider them the essential survivalists flight to safety asset.

That said, I am not going to pump them up right now. I have got more silver whenever it hits anywhere below $13/ oz. I buy. Told you that before. Below $13, it costs more to pull from the ground than it is to own! That condition is unsustainable. A Silver shortage is pending. The current Gold/Silver ratio is 114! That’s insane! Back when Jesus walked the earth, it was about 1:15. For most of the 20th Century is was less than 1:50. Silver has far more value now than when Jesus or JFK were walking about! It has investor AND industrial value. HUGE industrial value! If you own silver- don’t lose faith! If you want to own silver- get some!

Buying 18K gold chain makes as much sense or more than 24k coins. Probably more. The US Govt can confiscate coinage, but not jewelry. And, if you’ve read Fernando Aguirres book, “Surviving the economic collapse” based on his experience when Argentina fell into chaos in 2001, you will appreciate the value of chain over coinage.

Keep the faith! President Trump recently said that more bailouts are on the way. To the tune of 2+ Trillion dollars. The US Congress is out of session for the next three weeks. I suspect both the Administration and the Congress underestimate the clamor / outrage / messy situation that closing the vast majority of US businesses is creating for the average Joe and Josephine. Most Americans don’t have savings. Actually, at this point the average $400 savings account is gone. AND its going to take the IRS weeks (since they are on Stay At Home orders) to figure out how to get that $1000+ check to folks.

There will be a second direct payment to taxpayers in the US this spring. They will have to do that. An easy +$1T. The US will in-debt itself even more. The future path of US Debt pre- COVID was manageable in the ten year short term. Now the National credit card is being maxed out & the US debt is skyrocketing. Isn’t ironic that the Republican Party (said conservatives) are always the guys that over- spend?!

We cannot change politicians. We can only position ourselves! So, don’t despair if you are upside down in Gold or Silver. The day of reckoning for US dollar denominated assets has moved (by my estimation) from 2030 to 2022. Or sooner. Buy what you can, when you can. Silver is better than gold at this moment in history.

200316 PM Update:

Gold and Silver (esp Silver) are not holding up well. In the normal flight to safety, these commodities usually do great. These are not normal times. Last time this happened was 2008-2009. My advice… watch silver very closely. The normal world does not consider gold to be what it is… a store of value. Because Silver is (at this time) more an industrial metal than a store of value, the chances of it cratering are HUGE!

The current Silver/ Gold Ratio is at $105.401. That means that Silver is on sale at historically cheap prices. It may get cheaper. I said before that if silver gets anywhere near $10 I am backing up the truck. Fact is, I am backing up a small truck tomorrow. Silver is the most undervalued commodity on Earth at this time. Buying now, even a little, isn’t the dumbest thing you will ever do.

200305 Gold Miner Update

The bullish 3x Gold miner ET as recovered above its 50 day simple moving average. It needs to close above this higher for it to be significant. Last weeks meltdown wrecked its chart, so caution is in order until it regains a trading range in the $38- $40 level.

200305 Silver Update

Silver was crushed last week during the general market panic. Its chart remains problematic until clear evidence emerges that it remains in a bullish uptrend. That evidence would be found with a close higher than $18.75.
Industrial purpose is a significant part of the silver demand equation, and it appears that a manufacturing slowdown is underway. For now- avoid.

20200222 Silvercorp Metals- Aggressive / risky play on silver

Silvercorp Metals (SVM) got nailed when its earnings failed to meet expectations earlier this month. This is a Canadian based company that mines silver in China. It had earnings of 4 cents when it was projected to make 6 cents. This drop in earnings happened before COVID-19, so its not related.

What is- until just days ago the miners in China were not permitted to work. Since they missed several weeks, the output / earnings might be even more disappointing if silver doesn’t continue to rise in price.

This could go either way… but one of you asked for something other than PAAS. Later this week I’ll review some more reasonable alternatives: KL, FNV, and GOLD.

20200219 $SILVER review

20200219 $GOLD review

20200219 PAAS breaks out:

20200211 PAAS potentially completing coil- upside tgt would be $28