20201230 Update

   
StockPrice Sell StopOpinion
GBTC$32.90$24.90Hold.  Tied to BTC so its sell stop is wider than 20%
RNG$388.00$349.90HOLD Gained $40 in last week. Projecting ST top at$405 with the inevitable ST reverse. Ave ST drop- 16%. You can get this one cheaper in the new year. Drop to $360 likely to test base
GNRC$229.00$190.00Remains range bound. Buy at $205 (safest) or buy at $235 if it begins to break out of range to upside. SS set at 5% below bottom of its range
AGQ$52.00$39.90Sell Stop Loss raised. WATCH until $55. Buy over $55 with tight stops. Likely to drop if it nears $70. Currently precariously perched on top of its range based chart. 
TSLA$694.00$548.00Buy / Hold  Most likely a move to $750 in next month… if someone can stop Musk from dumb tweets & emails
INMD$47.50$35.90HOLD / Up about $5 this week, but still in a price channel with a more likely move down than up. BUY at $40 
BYND$120.00$109.90HOLD / Remains range bound . BUY if it hits and holds at $120 (bottom of trading range). Sell if it breaks lower than $110
AMZN$3,285.00$2,800.00BUY. Upside potential in next month is ~$240/ share. Project $3480
BABA$238.00 SELL: Technically fell apart in last 2 weeks. 
ZM$353.00 SELL: Fell below sell stop. Sitting at a key support but might fall to $310. Will re-enter this trade if it hits close to $310 or above $410.
LAZR$35.00$29.00HOLD Has moved up $10 in last two weeks but has lost momentum. ST mixed. Buy if it moves over $40. 
NVDA$525.00$499.00BUY for aggressive investors only. Change in last 2 weeks from a Bull call to $600 is the chart has turned decidedly mixed. NVDA is going to move violently in the next 3-4 weeks. But it’s a crapshoot if that move is higher or lower.
TAN$102.00$85.00HOLD  / Accumulate Solar ETF.  Buy if it falls below $96. Aggressive investors can buy now- it should have another 20 points in it. This is a trade (clean energy) that might bump into the cold hard reality known as the US Senate. But until the State of the Union, it should have lift under it.
    
    
CRYPTO   
 Current Comment
BTC$29,100.00 HOLD: In PD. Most technical analysts have been writing for weeks that major resistance is at $30K and $36k. Its clear in the charts and what is expected (particularly when round numbers are involved w/ human psyche) may become self fulfilling. A drop to the $22k range would be extremely healthy for BTC in order to keep uptrend stable… its getting a bit out of hand up 48% this month. That said- its impossible to chart a top. Only market action will determine that. 
LINK$11.12 BUY: Good opportunity to get a DeFi leader on sale while all eyes are on BTC
XRP$0.21 SELL: Being sued by SEC for violations. Likely a dead duck.
ETH$740.00 BUY: Chart indicates a potential breakout that might test ATH  of $1346. It is getting expensive, fast. Will fall with BTC but both are in PD
Yearn.Finance  (YFI)$21,230.00 WATCH: Biggest of the DeFi has fallen as money has rushed to BTC. Chart indicates its going lower. I’m hoping for $15k as an re- entry
VeCoin (VTC).0194 ACCUMULATE: Must break over .023 to be fully bullish. Good use case for RFID
    
PD- price discovery

20200726 GSB LINK

My thesis from my last post remain unchanged. The best way to protect yourself from the coming economic storm remains Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Chainlink (LINK).

I’ve not posted to this site in months. I’ve engaged in significant self reflection on the posts I’ve made and the opinions I’ve shared with friends and family that there was no way that the broad stock market would have a “V” shaped recovery. It did. I was undeniably wrong! What went wrong? Why was I so jacked up?

Made the third classic blundere. The first two blunders can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LUUk6wVNrY

The third blunder is “Do not fight the Fed!” I think the validity of that rule will soon be suspect- but for now, it holds true.

There is a reason for the “V” shaped movement of the stock market- its false. It is based in digital dollars created out of thin air and the proclamations of the US President and the Fed Chief to do what ever it takes to prop up the stock and bond markets. The right side of the “V” that began in April is of almost the exact angle as the growth of both the US Debt and the Fed balance sheet combined. So yes! The market has scorched higher. Not due to economic activity by due to artificial and temporary intervention.

There are NO underlying fundamentals pushing the market higher- the only thing driving this nonsensical rally is the idea that somehow the US Government and the Federal Reserve have become the ‘Greater Fools.’ Why not push Tesla $1000 higher than what Elon Musk said in Feb 2020 was ‘fair value’? Why not? If the USG is going to flood the field with cash and seemingly remove risk! Tesla is not a financially viable company! But, since early April, its been a fantastic stock to own. The disconnect between reality and what has really happened dollar wise to many equity assets will soon stop diverging.

The US economy is in contraction. COVID 19 in the US has been incompetently managed. Perhaps that is too generous. The fact is that COVID was never managed as a National Response. Scientists were ignored and the entire disease somehow managed to become politicized by the Idiocracy that is modern US body politic. All the while, the Government is printing money like drunken fools. The underlying assumption is that the USG will somehow manage to get this right and the economy will resume as it usually does after recessions. That is an IF that I cannot abide.

I anticipated that between 2027-2030 there would be a shift from dollar dominance of world trade to a new global reserve currency. I suspect that shift will be much sooner- if not already starting. Why on Gods Green Earth would any nation trust the US to manage the Reserve Currency, when the vast majority of the Citizenry and the institutions of the Federal Government have quite clearly gone mental?

The polarized incompetency of the US ruling class has created the conditions for Nations that are not totally financially incompetent or as looney as the U.S.A. to seek a new form of reserve currency that is divorced from the USD and all the baggage of Washington DC. Most Americans do not understand (and will not until its lost) the significant global advantage it has enjoyed as the Reserve Currency since the end of WWII. Losing that status will impoverish most.

Not sure what that new Reserve Currency will be. I suppose nobody is. I suspect that a legitimate Free Market will decide that issue. So to hedge the bet- a little bit of old and a little bit of new… Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Link are the best bets moving forward. The Fed and insane amounts of stimulus can only go so far- and those opiods will lose potency sooner than later. This fall is going to be ugly. Bears make money, bulls make money and pigs get slaughtered. This fall, its doomsday for the pigs. If you were smart enough to run this artificial “V” up to these levels… don’t be a pig. Take some of that and GSB-LINK that cash to an asset class that might survive the pending Reckoning.

20200229 Fearing Fear itself

My thesis is that COVID-19 is an awful flu that is feared more for its unknown impact to the economy and everyday life than the actual disease impact itself. My approach to investing in this chaotic period is towards the bottom of post.

Markets hate uncertainty, and there is no historical model available to attempt to model the potential impact of this form of Coronavirus. Latest data suggests that container ships arriving in China was down 30% compared to same month last year. China is the worlds builder of “stuff”, and the US its best customer. The movement of that ‘stuff’ is clearly dwindling rapidly- which portends a significant global slowdown.

Lets look at rough numbers:

MarketChange from latest high:Why?
Dow Jones Industrial Average-13.80%Fear of unknown
Nasdaq Composite-12.50%Fear of unknown
Asia DOW Index-10%Fear of unknown
Nasdaq Europe-12.80%Fear of unknown
   
Gold-5.30%I don’t know
Silver-12.20%Fear of industrial demand drop
   
Bitcoin-19%Declines started before COVID Panic hit full force. Unknown why it hasn’t reversed. Seems to be a “sell anything with a Ask/Bid mentality”
Ethereum-23%
XRP-36%
LINK-15%

In theory, as the global markets turned south, Precious Metals and ‘Digital Gold’ should have appreciated in value. What we are seeing in all markets currently is a flight to liquid fiat. Concurrently, markets are expecting a Central Bank global intervention reducing interest rates. The world is already awash in paper money and its derivatives! No form of currency has ever cured a disease! This is a nonsensical, “lets do something to look like we are doing something” self distructive trap.

As indicated in Para 2, the world might be facing a Supply Shock of goods. Last one I remember was the 1973 Oil Embargo, the 1979 Oil Crisis and then the impacts of the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the Silver market in the late 1970s. Supply shock brings panic and reckless behaviors out in the most rationale of people. A supply shock in tandem with a flood of paper money is a recipe for an inflationary spiral. If inflation gets out of hand, most of the governments of the world to include the US will face an existential crisis. A huge portion of the US debt is in short term notes, so inflation will significantly alter its ‘refinancing rates’. A spike in inflation may become an existential crisis to fiat currencies on a global basis.

My ST investment Equity Market Strategy is to maintain my SQQQ and TECS (inverse ETF) positions. The market should bounce up before falling further and setting a bottom. This is not a time to be hoping for a “V” shaped bottom. It won’t happen. If you are not currently Inverse, its prudent to wait for a move up before betting on further drops. Assume that this weekend that all the global financiers and bankers are trying to plan a market intervention intent on pushing indexes up in order to soothe fears. I expect a move higher in equities starting Monday. Due to the never ending stream of bad news / COVID-19 Panic, that may not work.

My ST Precious Metals Strategy: (not physical here- market related assets like SLV, GLD, PAAS, JNUG, NUGT). I was stopped out of all of my PM positions in last 2 trading days. Gold: Anticipate continued weakness. Silver: Expect heavy short selling. Remember that in 2008, $SILVER futures were pushed down to $8. If silver gets anywhere near that level, I am backing up the truck & going all in.

Crypto: Wait and see from the sidelines. Will do a BTC, ETH and LINK update this weekend. Crypto is a hopeful asset, in that these assets are not fully established as legit and for the average Joe to put hard earned money in this seems a gamble. Since average Joe is getting more fearful by the day- lets assume that new money will be unlikely to enter this space in the short term and what we will be seeing is mostly current participants trading in and out of fiat in a zero sum game against each other.

20200219 Chainlink (LINK) shows strength in adversity.

It is very common during drawdowns for investors to miss opportunities. Especially the Hodlers. To avoid pain caused by falling account balances, they tend to ignore the market until good times roll.

Drawdowns are the time when one should actually focus more on the markets. When things go on sale- the ones with relative strength (RS) become more obvious. Those with great RS perform much better than the average ones in the next uptrend. While doing that, LINK has peaked my interest and will dig deeper . The current price action is reminiscent of ETH in the early spring of 2018.

Fibonacci retracement analysis of BTC, LINK, ETH, EOS, TRX, LTC, XRP

Bottom Line: Chainlink (LINK) is most bullish, relative to Fibonacci Retracement. The reason is that is has moved significantly above the 61.8% level. From the perspective of this indicator- there the Jul 19 high is the next major resistance level.

Bullishness in order: Chainlink, Bitcoin, Ethereum, EOS, Tron (TRX), LiteCoin (LTC), Ripple Labs XRP (not shown).

Bitcoin moving over its 50% level is a sign of strength. The remainder are struggling at the 38.2% level. Ranked EOS ahead of TRX simply because it hasn’t lost value since hitting the level. The fact is the last four are laggards in terms of Golden Ratio ( https://preview.tinyurl.com/7vkpugr ).

Sympathy for the laggards: Since crypto price is symbiotic, particularly relative to Bitcoin price, a solid argument can be made for shifting some towards the laggards since they do tend to price appreciate later in a bullish bitcoin cycle.