200317 Position update

Based on a belief there is at least another -20% downside, holding EDZ, SQQQ and TECS. On days where market is up +5% or more, buying short term (14-21 day) calls on SQQQ and TECS to escalate gains. No longer trading from TECS to TECL on a hard down day to catch the next days rally attempt- at this point, the bulls have got to be getting tired of getting caught in a bull trap. At this point they are 4 times burned in 10 trading days. Have reduced Puts on Disney and others once they hit 75-100% up so those positions are now house money.

Sold YANG and FNGD. The inverse FAANG ETF has got to diverge at some point- there is a bullish case for NFLX and AMZN. Apple is the one in the FAANG most susceptible to out sized draw-down.

200315 Mondays action:

If market moves down more than 5% on 3/16, will sell YANG and reduce shorts. While there is still $$ to be made in YANG, on a global basis it’s the US stock market that is the most highly over-valued and has the most room to fall if / when draconian measures are put into place to try to get a handle on COVID-19.

Goal will be to get long TQQQ and TECL in anticipation of a sharp move higher ( probably due to Congressional action) on Tuesday.

200301 Rethinking Equity position (Fearing Fear Post)

After doing a lot of charting over the past day, the possibility of a short term counter downtrend rally has become more likely. Things don’t fall straight down without even mild attempts of a rally and this fall off has been spectacular. Assuming the financial services folks have spend far more of their weekend trying to engineer a stabilization strategy for the market, it makes sense to expect one- however short or long lived.

The riskiest way to play a bounce is with Leveraged ETFs (3x). UPRO and TECL are candidates I’m considering. If markets in the US open with a significant bounce higher, I am going to wait until closer to 1200 to get a sense of its strength. If markets resume a downtrend, I am going to closely watch levels at 1030 to await a turn of events.