200401 S&P Failing at first Fibonacci level
For anyone that jumped into the Dead Cat Bounce- its time to consider bouncing out of trades that are not directly tied to potential profitability from COVID. MSFT, ZM and some others may be just fine…. but a test of the March 23 low is pending!
Technically- there is much evidence to support the idea that March 23 was a final low. I don’t buy it. We have never seen such a dramatic shutdown in the worlds economy as we are witnessing in real time. Earning are trashed! Fundamental Analysis (FA) of stocks? Useless! FA depends on predictable events and predictable earnings. The present situation is anything, but!
We are in a once-in-a- 100- year situation with no clear path forward. The only thing we can be sure of is that we don’t know! In times like these, the safest bet is GCSB. Gold, Cash, Silver and Bitcoin. Chart attached- I believe its saying that the market has not yet found a final bottom.
200316 Close LUV positions!
The Congress is about to bail out the airlines. The money has been made in LUV. Get out. Look at Visa (V) as a great alternative. The loss of revenue by people staying home will have a huge toll on its bottom line.
200305 Sell Short LUV update added to COVID page
200305 A look at YANG (China Bear 3x ETF)
The calming of global equity markets has had a negative impact on YANG. The spike in institutional buying (OBV) and clear drop in overall money flow (CMF) indicates investors and institutions are leaving the space. The chart bears that up with a fall to trend line at $43.40 level.
As a short term trading play, none of that is unexpected. However, I project that the bad news in terms of global demand for goods is only going to increase as businesses and consumers alike pull in horns. It is highly likely that YANG meets or exceeds the $65 level it reached last summer.
200224 Equity markets hit on COVID-19.
The few bullish post below need to be viewed suspect based on current reaction to global spread of COVID-19
20200220 “Risk On” ratio indicates further gains of S&P 500
20200219 INMD is a buy.
20200214 S&P Valuation reminder
20200213 GNRC uptrend